Fuels: €357 million less tax revenue for the state, according to David Amiel

High fuel prices do not translate into a net revenue supplement for the state, according to David Amiel. The Minister of Public Accounts has announced on France 2 a decrease of 357 million euros in tax revenues related to fuels since the beginning of the year. This declaration, transmitted on 13 October 2026 by South West, BFMTV and franceinfo, concerns the cumulative balance of VAT and excise duties, not an identical reduction in each of these taxes. [S1] [S2] [S4]

Lower volumes weigh more than higher VAT

The government's explanation is based on two opposing movements: higher prices support VAT revenues, while lower quantities of fuel purchased reduce excise duties. The documentation of the Ministry of Ecological Transition confirms that the basis for taxing excise duties depends on volumes or quantities. A pump price increase alone is therefore not sufficient to determine the evolution of total tax revenues. [S1] [S2] [S5]

The latest figures taken from South West and BFMTV relate to September 30: VAT revenues were then up 798 million euros, but excise duties were down 1.181 billion euros compared to the same period of the previous year. The balance showed a shortfall of EUR 383 million for the State. This data informs the mechanism invoked by the Minister, without providing a breakdown of the new amount of $357 million. [S1] [S2]

The perimeter should also be specified. Taxes represent about half the price of petrol and diesel, with a variable proportion depending on the price excluding taxes. But their product does not come entirely from the State: part of it benefits the regions and departments. The figure announced therefore does not constitute a balance sheet of the total government revenues on fuels. [S1] [S2]

A Loss of Gains That Stains

The amounts reported successively show a reduction in the loss of profits: EUR 407 million as at 20 September, EUR 383 million as at 30 September, and then EUR 357 million in the declaration issued on 13 October. These are cumulative situations at different dates, not losses to be added up. The improvement of the balance does not erase its negative character. [S1] [S2] [S4]

The media consulted converge on this development and do not present contradictory figures. South West and BFMTV provide more details on previous VAT and excise balances than franceinfo. This concordance, however, is based on the same ministerial declaration; South West and franceinfo also mention AFP. It does not constitute several accounting audits independent of the amount announced. [S1] [S2] [S4]

The "wine", a political interpretation challenged by the Minister

David Amiel draws from this negative balance an argument against appeals to redistribute a possible tax surplus. He calls this "wine" "imaginary". This assessment is that of the minister: the figures reported indicate a net decrease in government revenues within the scope presented, but the articles do not detail the proposals he responds to or the arguments of their advocates. [S1] [S2] [S4]

The announcement comes as prices remain high. South West and BFMTV report an average price of €2.16 per litre of SP95-E10 and €2.36 per litre of diesel oil for Tuesday, 13 October. They also recall the government's announcement of the destocking of millions of barrels of diesel oil from 1 November to try to reduce prices. This is an announced measure, the effects of which are not yet assessed by these publications. [S1] [S2]

Several details remain missing from the new balance sheet: the exact date on which the receipts were made, the updated breakdown between VAT and excise duties and the quantitative extent of the decrease in volumes. The available information therefore makes it possible to report an announced tax loss and its recent mitigation, but not to deduct the result for the entire year 2026. [S1] [S2] [S4]