France: Unemployment almost stable at 8.2% in the third quarter of 2026, but rising over one year

Unemployment marks a pause, without erasing its annual growth. In the third quarter of 2026, it affects 8.2% of the working population in France, according to the results of the INSEE announced on Tuesday 10 November. The rate decreased by 0.1 points over the quarter, but remained 0.4 points higher than in the third quarter of 2025. The number of unemployed under the International Labour Office (ILO) is down from 47,000 to 2.6 million. South West, franceinfo and BFM Business report the same central figures. [S1][S3][S5]

A small drop, rather than a turnaround

The "almost stable" described by Sud Ouest and franceinfo and the "light drop" highlighted by BFM Business are the same result. The difference is a question of presentation, not a statistical divergence. BFM Business indicated that consensus expected a rate of 8.4%, without specifying its composition in the article. The surprise is therefore due to the deviation from expectations, not to the magnitude of the decline. [S1][S3][S5]

Another indicator suggests that this decline should not be equated with a general recovery in hiring: INSEE's scoreboard reports almost stable private employment in the third quarter of 2026, down 0.1% over the quarter and 0.3% over the year. This indicator covers private employment in France outside Mayotte; it does not directly measure the number of unemployed. [S8]

Different trends by age and sex

The unemployment rate for 15-24-year-olds falls by 0.5 percentage points to 21%. It remains well above that of other age groups. In the 25-49 age group, it fell by 0.2 percentage points to 7.3%. Conversely, for people aged 50 and over, it increases by 0.1 percentage points, to 5.6%, its highest level since the first quarter of 2022. The average improvement therefore does not concern all ages. [S1][S5]

Changes also differ between women and men: the unemployment rate for women falls by 0.3 percentage points to 7.8%, while that for men increases by 0.1 percentage points to 8.6%. These results describe collective situations; they alone do not explain the difficulties, professional choices or possibilities of action of each person. [S1][S5]

What the ILO measures unemployment

The definition of INSEE is based on three simultaneous conditions: being at least 15 years old and unemployed for a given week, being available to work within two weeks, and actively seeking employment in the last four weeks — or having found one beginning in less than three months. The recognized approaches include consulting announcements, mobilizing its network and consulting with France Travail. [S7]

Administrative registration in France Labour is therefore not the criterion defining unemployment within the meaning of the ILO. This distinction is important to understand the figures: they describe a specific situation with regard to employment, not all people without work or all work difficulties. They also do not measure the practical freedom to choose a position adapted to their constraints. [S7]

Government welcomes resistance, without evidence of causality

The Minister of Labour, Jean-Pierre Farandou, believes that the French labour market "does better than resist" international and commercial tensions. It defends government measures concerning wages and purchasing power, which are presented as favourable to households without weakening employment. This political assessment must be distinguished from the statistical finding: the results reported do not show that these measures explain the quarterly decline. [S1][S5]

South West and BFM Business also report on the accuracy attributed to INSEE: since the implementation of the law for full employment in January 2025, RSA beneficiaries and young people aged 15 to 29 registered in France Travail have contributed slightly less than half to the rise in the unemployment rate. This statistical contribution is not sufficient to establish that the reform would have caused so many job losses. Nor does it make it possible to conclude that it is effective on individual routes. [S1][S5]

The challenge remains to distinguish between improving an indicator of real opportunities for finding a job. The quarterly decline is established, but the annual increase persists and trends by age remain mixed: these data do not yet lead to a lasting improvement in the labour market. [S1][S3][S5]