Germany: Ilse Aigner nears an application for federal presidency

Ilse Aigner now appears as the choice of the CDU-CSU to succeed Frank-Walter Steinmeier as German Federal President. On 6 November, several media outlets reported that Friedrich Merz was to propose the President of the Bavarian Parliament to the CDU's governing bodies. At the age of 61, this head of the CSU would, in the event of an election, be the first woman to perform this function. But the political agreement reported by the press is not yet valid for either official appointment or election. [S1] [S3] [S4]

A converging choice, an announcement still awaited

Kurier, who takes up the information gathered from several high-ranking sources in the Union, reports a consensus in the direction of the CDU. Der Spiegel also reports that he must become the candidate of the Conservative alliance. The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung states, in her follow-up to political news, that the CDU circles interviewed no longer discuss other candidates. These publications describe the same stage: the CDU's expected rallying to an application from its Bavarian partner. [S1] [S3] [S4]

The reserve remains with Friedrich Merz. His entourage refuses to comment on this information and refers to meetings of party bodies scheduled for Monday. According to Kurier, the chancellor must present Aigner Sunday and Monday to the CDU leaders, before a formal decision by the presidium and the steering committee. FAZ states that she is invited to the party headquarters on Monday. The absence of public confirmation therefore requires the retention of the conditional on this formalisation. [S1] [S3]

Support beyond the CSU

Markus Söder, head of the CSU, had advanced the name of Aigner in April. Merz had long avoided appointing a candidate, while some CDU officials wanted their own party to propose a personality. The FAZ reported that these discussions did not lead to the emergence of CDU candidates with sufficiently broad support, while the positions favourable to Aigner were increasing. [S1] [S3]

The Süddeutsche Zeitung cites regional leaders CDU Mario Voigt, Michael Kretschmer and Sven Schulze among his supporters. It also mentions Social Democrats Anke Rehlinger, Manuela Schwesig and Dietmar Woidke, as well as environmentalist Cem Özdemir. Kurier added the support of the SPD Parliamentary Group Chair, Matthias Miersch. These positions broaden its base, without constituting in themselves a collective commitment of each formation or a guarantee on each vote. [S1] [S5]

Aigner already has a federal experience: she was Minister of Agriculture from 2008 to 2013 under Angela Merkel, before joining the Bavarian government as Minister of Economy. She has been President of the Bavarian Parliament since 2018. Her possible election would also make her the first person of the CSU to become head of the federal state. [S3]

A transpacist stature still to be tested

In its comment, FAZ welcomes the ability to attract support beyond its camp. In particular, the newspaper interprets its openness to environmental voices as a sign of independence from Söder. He also mentioned the reluctance of CDU officials to leave the application to the CSU. This reading is part of the editorial analysis: it sheds light on the relations between parties, but does not demonstrate how Aigner would actually exercise the presidency. [S2]

The last word belongs to the Federal Assembly

The institutional calendar is fixed: according to the Bundestag, the Federal Assembly will meet on 30 January 2027. Steinmeier's term of office ended on 18 March. Citizens will not directly choose the next president or president: this is the responsibility of the 630 Members of Parliament and as many representatives elected by the parliaments of the Länder. [S7]

Each member of this assembly may nominate a candidate. The voting is secret and takes place without prior debate. An absolute majority is required in the first two rounds; on the third, the person who receives the most votes wins. These rules make a concrete distinction between the power of proposal of partisan directorates and the decision of the persons called to vote. [S7]

Kurier and FAZ point out that the Union and the SPD together have the necessary majority, which puts Aigner in a favourable position if these supports are reflected in the ballot box. The prospect of a first federal president is therefore strongly supported by the converging press reports. However, it remains subject to two distinct stages: the formalization of the candidacy and then the vote of the Federal Assembly. [S1] [S3] [S7]