Climate: French emissions are expected to fall by 2.8% by 2026, a rate still insufficient

France's greenhouse gas emissions are expected to decrease by 2.8% in 2026, reaching 349.4 million tonnes CO2 equivalent, according to the barometer published by Citepa on Tuesday 13 October. Relayed by Ouest-France, 20 Minutes, franceinfo and Le Monde, this forecast marks a sharper decline than in 2025, where the decline had reached 2.1%. However, it does not mean that France is already keeping pace with its climate objectives. [S1] [S2] [S3] [S4]

A decline that is expected to slow down in the second half of the year

The annual figure combines two levels of information: a first estimate of emissions in the first half of the year and a projection for the second. From January to June, emissions are estimated at 179.7 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, down 4.1% from the same period of 2025. For the second half of the year, Citepa anticipates a decline of only 1.3%. The annual result therefore remains a forecast, not a definitive balance sheet. [S5]

This slowdown would be explained in particular by the energy industry. After a slight decline in the first half of the year, its emissions would start rising again, increasing their annual growth to 3.6%. Electricity generation would be the main driver of this rebound. Conversely, manufacturing and construction, as well as agriculture, would keep emissions down over the year. [S2] [S5]

Buildings and transport, main contributors

Buildings recorded the largest volume reduction in the first half of the year: 3.7 million tonnes less CO2 equivalent, a decrease of 12%. Heating, sanitary hot water and cooking in residential and tertiary buildings explain most of this development, notably through lower consumption of natural gas. Despite a slight rebound expected in the second half of the year, the sector's emissions are forecast to decrease by 5.9% over the 2026 period. [S1] [S2] [S5]

In transport, the report makes it possible to distinguish two identical figures covering different perimeters: emissions from road transport fell by 4.8% in the first half of the year, while a 4.8% decrease is expected for all transport over the year. Sales of diesel fuel decreased by 7.3% over the first six months. Franceinfo and Le Monde stress the role of high fuel prices in this decline in consumption. [S3] [S4] [S5]

However, these developments do not allow the precise measurement of the share of sustainable transformations and economic constraints. The Citepa states that its barometers are not intended to distinguish between cyclical effects and structural effects. The forecast decline alone cannot therefore be interpreted as proof of a lasting acceleration of the transition. [S5]

Progress towards the 2030 targets

Sources are converging on the inadequacy of the expected pace. West France and 20 Minutes recall the French emission reduction target of at least 50% by 2030 compared to 1990, requiring a 5% reduction per year. Franceinfo points out that the indicative trajectory of the Third National Low Carbon Strategy foresees reductions of 5.7% in 2027 and 6.1% in 2028. [S1] [S2] [S3]

The assessments differ more than the figures. The Minister for Ecological Transition, Monique Barbut, describes the decline as "encouraging", while acknowledging that it is not enough. Anne Bringault, Director of Climate Action Network programmes, stressed the lack of acceleration of a fair transition and the difficulties that energy prices impose on households and businesses. These reactions thus concern the scope and social conditions of the decline, without challenging the central forecast. [S1] [S2]

A perimeter that excludes soils and forests

The total announced concerns territorial emissions from France and the ultramarine territories included in the European Union, excluding land use and forestry. It does not measure the carbon footprint of French consumption, which also includes emissions produced abroad. The effects of forest fires are not included in the 2.8% decrease. [S5]

On this last point, the original document raises a divergence: unlike the "77 hectares" mentioned by West France, the Citepa indicates about 77,000 hectares burned between 1 January and 27 August 2026, excluding eco-fog. It estimates their emissions at 5.7 million tonnes CO2 equivalent, in a separate calculation. The balance sheet announced must therefore be read with its limits: a revised projection, on a defined perimeter, and not an exhaustive measure of the French climate impact. [S1] [S5]