Legislative in Israel: Netanyahu in the lead, but still without majority to govern

Benjamin Netanyahu's camp remained at the top of the Israeli legislature on 27 October 2026, but no majority emerged. In an issue published on 28 October at 12:34 p.m., The Times of Israel reported a projection of 54 seats for the outgoing Prime Minister's bloc, compared with 49 for Gadi Eisenkot's bloc and 17 for the Arab parties. This distribution, made after the counting of 84.5% of the ballot boxes, remains provisional: the absolute majority in the Knesset is 61 MPs out of 120. [S41] [S3]

Successive figures, not a definitive result

The advance of the outgoing block was maintained as the count was made. The first ballot polls placed the opposition slightly ahead, before some estimates gave both sides equal. At 50.1 per cent of the blank ballots, La Libre then won 56 seats for Netanyahu and his allies, 49 for the opposition and 15 for the Arab parties. Africanews reported a 70% distribution of 54, 47 and 19 seats. These publications describe different stages of the same election, not contradictory final results. [S3] [S6] [S2]

The announced advance of Arab formations should therefore not be frozen at 19 seats: the subsequent point of the Times of Israel credits them with 17 elected. The media said that the votes under double envelope, especially those of the military, were counted later. It also distinguishes counted ballot boxes from stripped ballot boxes: these percentages are not directly interchangeable. [S41]

The mobilization was strong, with a participation of 77.7%, presented by La Libre and Radio-Canada as the highest since 1999. However, it does not resolve the issue of alliances: neither of the two main blocs has, in the projections reported, a majority allowing it to govern alone. [S3] [S10]

Two suitors, no coalition acquired

Netanyahu and Eisenkot both said they were ready to form a government. The first calls for a "strong right-wing government" and stresses that the Likud remains the first party. The second presents the first estimates as a "complete disavowal" of the outgoing power and promises to do everything to govern. These statements are their political interpretations of the vote, not proof that a parliamentary agreement exists. [S6] [S10]

The main obstacle is acceptable partners. Netanyahu rejects a government based on Arab parties, which he calls "anti-Zionist". Radio-Canada reports that Eisenkot had also ruled out cooperation with these groups, despite the offer of Mansour Abbas, leader of Raam. Opposition to Netanyahu is therefore not sufficient to form a joint government project. [S3] [S10]

The weight of voters will depend on the choice of alliance

The proposals of the Arab formations are distinct. Mansour Abbas said he was ready to work with Eisenkot. The Unified List has proposed parliamentary support for a coalition excluding Netanyahu; Its leader, Youssef Jabareen, calls for a Judeo-Arab partnership and affirms that those who want to replace the government will have to discuss with its formation. Ministerial participation and external support would not engage parties in the same way. [S10] [S7] [S42]

On the left, Yair Golan calls on the opposition to join forces with Arab parties and denounces Netanyahu's distinction between Jewish and Arab voices. The disagreement thus concerns the political legitimacy of the partners and the ability of their voters to influence the government. These positions remain those of identified officials: they do not lend a uniform will to all Jewish or Arab citizens. [S15] [S42]

Responsibilities Beyond Departmental Distribution

After the official proclamation of the results, President Isaac Herzog must nominate a candidate to form a government. A number of issues remain to be considered: the enlargement of a bloc, the minority government with external support or the union agreement between opponents. A return to the ballot box remains possible in the event of an impasse, while Netanyahu would remain acting Prime Minister. None of these scenarios is presented as an agreement concluded in the available information. [S7] [S15]

The negotiations will also involve the responsibility of the leaders. Eisenkot promised an independent commission of inquiry into security failures on 7 October 2023, for which he accuses Netanyahu of being responsible. The outgoing Prime Minister defends his balance and the weakening of Israel's enemies. Beyond the choice of the head of government, the future of this investigative promise will be a concrete point in assessing the commitments of the future coalition. [S32] [S34]