Legislation in Israel: Netanyahu leads after 66.3% of counting, without majority

Benyamin Netanyahu retains the advantage, but not an insured majority. Following the Israeli legislative elections of 27 October 2026, his Likud and his allies were credited 54 seats out of 120 in the Knesset, after the counting of 66.3 per cent of the ballots. The opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot would obtain 48, and the Arab parties 18 according to the data of the Electoral Commission reported by the Last News of Alsace. RFI confirms the advance of the outgoing camp at this stage. This distribution remains provisional. [S1] [S4]

An advance that is not worth winning

The successive figures describe different stages of the same election. At 50.1% of the blank ballots, La Libre Belgique had 56 seats for Camp Netanyahu, 49 for the opposition and 15 for Arab parties. The ballot polls had previously placed the opposition slightly ahead, and several estimates had given the two blocks a tie. These surveys should not be confused with partial counting distributions. The counting percentages are also not election scores. [S3] [S7]

The convergence between the sources concerns the absence of an absolute majority for each of the two blocks at the stages described: none reaches 61 seats. The participation rate was 77.7 per cent, the highest level since 1999, according to RFI and Radio-Canada. This strong mobilization, however, does not prejudge alliances that will be concluded by elected officials. [S1] [S4] [S7]

Both leaders say they are ready to govern. Netanyahu calls for a "strong right-wing government". Eisenkot presents the first estimates as a "complete disavowal" of the Prime Minister and promises to do everything possible to form a government. It is their political interpretations, not a result dedicating a winner. Radio-Canada points out that Netanyahu did not claim victory in his night speech. [S7]

Arab parties at the centre of alliance choices

With 18 seats in the 66.3 per cent allocation, the Arab lists could play a decisive role. But their support is not gained for a common coalition. Raam, led by Mansour Abbas, said he was ready to work with Eisenkot; the Unified List has proposed external support to a coalition excluding Netanyahu. Participating in and providing parliamentary support to a government are two distinct options. [S4]

The main obstacle is political. Netanyahu rejects a government based on Arab parties, which he denounces as "anti-Zionist". Eisenkot had also ruled out cooperation with these trainings, according to Radio-Canada. Conversely, the leader of the Israeli left, Yair Golan, calls for a partnership with Arab citizens and condemns Netanyahu's distinction between Jewish and Arab voices. These diverging positions place the responsibility of leaders in the search for a majority. [S3] [S4] [S7]

For voters, the concrete issue is the ability of their vote to weigh on the government and its agenda. The refusals of alliance are not unanimous in the camps concerned: RFI reports disagreements between Yashar militants, the party of Eisenkot, on the opening of negotiations with the Arab parties. A partisan label is therefore not sufficient to summarize individual preferences. [S39]

Who can form the government?

Arriving in the lead does not automatically lead the government. The Knesset states that the President must, after consulting the parliamentary groups, entrust this task to a Member within seven days of publication of the results. It has 28 days, with a possible extension not exceeding 14 days. The outgoing government continues to hold office until the next one is formed. [S41]

Several avenues remain open: expanding a coalition through new partners, obtaining external support for a minority government, or negotiating a union between opponents. The Last News of Alsace considers this last hypothesis unlikely given the political polarization. None of these scenarios is, at this stage, an agreement announced. [S4]

If attempts fail, new elections are still possible. The failure of the first candidate, however, does not immediately trigger them: other procedures may occur before dissolution. In the meantime, Netanyahu could remain in office without obtaining a new parliamentary majority. [S4] [S41]

Responsibilities beyond job sharing

The negotiations will also focus on substantive commitments. Eisenkot promised a commission of inquiry into security failures on 7 October 2023. Netanyahu, who rejects his responsibility for this failure, defended his security record during the campaign. For citizens seeking explanations, the fate of this survey will be a matter of public responsibility, distinct from the division of ministries. Incomplete counting does not yet determine the next government or the commitments it can implement. [S2] [S40]