Legislation in Israel: Netanyahu and Eisenkot want to govern, without majority assured

Benyamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot each show their will to form the next Israeli government, without a majority assured after the 27 October legislative elections. During the night of Tuesday to Wednesday, the revised projections of channels 11 and 13 give their blocks equal, with 51 seats each. Channel 12 gives an advantage to the outgoing Prime Minister's camp, with 52 seats versus 49. All these estimates remain below the threshold of 61 of the 120 Knesset MPs. [S9] [S11] [S38]

Moving projections, not a definitive result

When the offices closed, the first estimates placed the "block of change" led by Eisenkot slightly ahead, with 52 to 53 seats, compared to 50 for the outgoing coalition. The information then published on equality or a return of Netanyahu therefore correspond to successive stages of the same election. Franceinfo, RFI and RTS report these television projections: their convergence does not constitute as many independent counts. [S7] [S26] [S11]

The Likud would nevertheless remain the first party, with 27 seats in the updated estimates, ahead of Yashar, the Eisenkot party. This first place is not enough to lead the government: parliamentary support remains critical. The figures available are still projections, not a final distribution of mandates resulting from the recount. [S11] [S38]

Two ambitions, still uncertain alliances

Eisenkot declared himself ready to form a government and opposed new elections. Netanyahu called for a "right" and "strong" executive. The centrist presents the first estimates as a disavowal of the outgoing power, while the Foreign Minister Gideon Saar considers the celebrations of the opposition premature. These statements express political positions; They do not prove that a government agreement is being acquired. [S9] [S17]

The Israeli Arab lists, Raam and the Consolidated List, could play a decisive role. The first projections allocated them together 17 to 18 seats; The night reports also refer to 19 mandates. These variable figures should not be combined with other projections to artificially replenish a final Parliament. Mansour Abbas, leader of Raam, said he was ready to work with Eisenkot, while Netanyahu rejected a government based on the support of Arab parties. [S7] [S9]

This cooperation also divides the opposition. At Yashar headquarters, RFI reports that some activists consider it essential to negotiate with Arab parties, while others rule out this perspective. For voters, the issue is concrete: they choose a list of MPs, proportionally, not directly the Prime Minister. The translation of their vote into government action will depend on the agreements that leaders will agree to conclude and assume. [S26] [S36]

Strong mobilization, contested electoral rules

RFI reported an interest of 77.7%. This rate must be distinguished from the 74.3% recorded at 8 p.m., prior to the closure of the offices, according to the Electoral Commission cited by Le Monde. The publications differ on some historical comparisons and hourly indications: they nevertheless establish a strong mobilization, without justifying to repeat indiscriminately all the announcements of "record". [S26] [S24] [S11]

The Electoral Commission refused the request of Likud to extend the voting hours. According to its statement reported by the RTBF, the circumstances did not justify this measure and no need for extension had been identified. The decision was therefore a matter for the electoral authority, despite the request of the party of the head of government. [S23]

RTBF also reports the arrest of three persons suspected of attempting to buy votes in favour of Raam. The electoral authorities indicated that no other such incidents had been reported. These suspicions, under investigation, do not demonstrate widespread fraud or collective responsibility of party voters, despite Netanyahu's accusations of attempts to "steal the election". [S23]

Political responsibility beyond headquarters

These first laws since Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023 also involve the establishment of responsibilities in security failures. Eisenkot promises an independent commission of inquiry; Netanyahu defends his military record and claims to have weakened Israel's enemies. These competing arguments do not replace an investigation or its findings. At this stage, the projections do not allow the renewal of the Prime Minister or his replacement to be taken for granted: the composition of the majority remains to be determined. [S15] [S21] [S38]