Legislative in Israel: Netanyahu and Eisenkot blocks with elbow-to-neck, without majority

The Israeli legislatures of 27 October 2026 did not release any insured winner. Initially credited with a short lead, the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot finds itself at the elbow-to-neck with the camp of Benyamin Netanyahu in revised projections during the night. The common point remains: neither block would reach the 61 seats constituting the absolute majority in the Knesset. These estimates are not official results. [S9] [S13] [S37]

An initial advance that tightens

The first polls to exit the ballot boxes of channels 11, 12 and 13, relayed notably by franceinfo, RTBF and RFI, granted 52 to 53 seats to the "change bloc", compared with 50 to the outgoing coalition in a 120-member parliament. These media report largely the same television projections: their convergence does not therefore represent several independent recounts. [S9] [S20] [S23]

The Jerusalem Post, however, updated on 28 October at 1:51 a.m., reports that the projections of channels 11 and 13 broadcast at 1:00 a.m. place the two blocks on an equal footing, with 51 seats each. Another estimate maintains a slight advance of opposition. France 24 also mentions a distinctly different projection of Channel 14, a channel favourable to the Prime Minister, giving nearly 60 seats to his camp. The gap between estimates prohibits presenting a victory as acquired. [S13] [S37]

The Likud would remain the first formation, despite the initial advance of the opposing bloc. The first estimates attributed him 24 or 25 seats, compared to 21 to 23 for Yashar, the party of Eisenkot; The night projections of channels 11 and 13 then bring the Likud to 27 seats. The first place of a party and that of an alliance are two separate rankings, which are neither sufficient to guarantee power. [S9] [S37]

Eisenkot, however, spoke of a "complete" disavowal of the government, and Yair Lapid of an "excessive defeat." Conversely, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar considered the celebrations "premature", highlighting the first place of Likud. These statements express the political readings of the protagonists, not the outcome of the forthcoming negotiations. [S14] [S20]

Arab lists could influence alliances

Raam and the Unified List would jointly obtain 17 or 18 seats, according to projections. Located outside the two main blocks, these trainings could play a decisive role. But their parliamentary weight does not guarantee any agreement: The Jerusalem Post points out that most opposition leaders have excluded from forming a government with them, with the exception of Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats. [S9] [S37]

For voters, the distinction is concrete: they choose a proportional list of MPs, not directly a Prime Minister. Political leaders then have to negotiate alliances. At Yashar headquarters, RFI describes militants divided on cooperation with Arab lists. The common desire to replace Netanyahu therefore does not resolve disagreements over acceptable partners. [S23] [S33]

High mobilisation, contested rules

The turnout was 74.3 per cent at 8 p.m., two hours before most offices closed, according to the Electoral Commission cited by several media. RFI and The Jerusalem Post then report a rate of 77.7 per cent at the close. Historical comparisons vary between publications; The intermediate and end-of-election figures must be distinguished above all. [S13] [S21] [S23] [S37]

The Electoral Commission rejected Likud's request to extend the timetable, believing that no need justified this measure. The day was also marked by the arrest of three persons suspected of attempting to buy votes in favour of Raam, according to the police quoted by RTBF. The election authorities described the incident as isolated. The investigation concerns alleged individual acts: it does not allow for collective responsibility to be assigned to party voters or for widespread fraud. [S20]

Reporting after October 7th

These first legislative acts since Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023 also concern the responsibilities of the leaders. Eisenkot promises an independent commission of inquiry into security failures. Netanyahu defends his military record and claims to have weakened Israel's enemies. For citizens, the issue goes beyond changing people: it also concerns the possibility of establishing responsibilities and understanding decisions taken on their behalf. However, the committee announced remains a political commitment. [S14] [S24]

The recount and subsequent negotiations will determine whether this election allows for alternation. An impasse could prolong Netanyahu's retention on an interim basis; Failure to form a government could also lead to new elections. At this stage, neither his departure nor his renewal are acquired. [S2] [S13]