Serbia: Vučić Recognises Defeat Against the Student List · Global Voices

Aleksandar Vučić recognized on Sunday 25 October the victory of the Student List in the early parliamentary elections in Serbia. The stories of Balkan Insight, BBC and Deutsche Welle converge: the leader conceded his defeat before the final results were published. In Belgrade, his announcement triggered celebrations on the streets, paving the way for an alternation after fourteen years of dominance of the Serbian Progressive Party, the SNS. [S14] [S18] [S23]

A majority announced, not yet a final result

According to Vučić's projections, the Student List would receive between 135 and 140 seats in a 250-member parliament, compared with about 105 seats in its camp. Reuters, taken from ABC News, reports a separate estimate giving 138 seats to student-supported candidates and 104 seats to the SNS, while the rest go back to national minority formations. These estimates converge on an absolute majority, but do not constitute a definitive allocation of mandates. [S14] [S19]

The vote projections must also remain allocated: Balkan Insight quotes the CRAT election observation organization, which gives 51.5 per cent to the Student List and 40.2 per cent to Camp Vučić. The New Obs reports a CeSID estimate of 52.1% compared to 39.3%. These differences do not call into question the common trend, but prohibit presenting these figures as a single official count. [S14] [S10]

This is a general election. Despite the name "president" still used in some reports, Vučić had resigned in September to run his camp with the aim of becoming Prime Minister again. The name of the next head of government is not included in the information available. [S23] [S19]

From the Novi Sad disaster to the demand for accounts

The mobilization was born after the collapse of an awning at Novi Sad station in November 2024, which killed sixteen people. Protesters have denounced alleged corruption and shortcomings in infrastructure security. The authorities rejected these charges. The demand for responsibilities gradually turned into a demand for early elections; However, political accusations alone do not constitute a judicial conclusion on the causes of the disaster. [S14] [S23]

The movement is beyond campus. Associated Press states that the students have shaped the list without being included in it: the applications include experts, athletes, farmers and artists. In order to reach voters far from the urban mobilizations, activists travelled the country on foot and by bicycle, especially in rural areas traditionally favourable to Vučić. [S24]

According to the BBC, their programme plans to hold officials who have broken the rules to account in suppressing demonstrations, to put an end to partisan appointments at the head of public companies and to free the public audiovisual sector from political control. For the inhabitants, these commitments relate in concrete terms to the possibility of demonstrating, informing and challenging public decisions. Their implementation is yet to come. [S18]

Vučić and the SNS deny charges of corruption. Their campaign promised, among other things, increases in public pensions and salaries, as well as investments in health. After his defeat, Vučić accused independent media and foreign actors of favoring his opponents. The records consulted do not provide evidence to support these charges of interference. [S18] [S23]

Strong participation, alerts on the freedom to vote

Participation was approximately 64.9% at 6 p.m., prior to the closure of the offices. RFI then reports a projection of more than 69%, while Associated Press reports an estimate of almost 70%. The figures correspond to different times; Historical comparisons vary according to the media, the high mobilisation is better established than the exact qualification of a record. [S14] [S12] [S24]

CRATA reported pressure on voters, barriers to the work of polling stations and photographs of ballots. Conversely, the Chairman of the Electoral Commission, Vladimir Dimitrijević, described mostly minor incidents, which were generally resolved. Their impact on the national outcome is not established. However, these reports raise a question separate from the winner's name: each elector must be able to choose without having to reveal his or her vote or be pressured. [S14]

Balkan Insight also reports the assault of two journalists in Pavlovac and the arrest of two suspects. In Belgrade, students called for avoiding areas where police presence was strengthened; RFI also mentions a call to monitor the transmission of the bulletins. The celebrations therefore do not resolve questions about the security of people and the integrity of the electoral process. [S14] [S7] [S12]

The alternation does not yet fix the sequence

Ursula von der Leyen congratulated the Student List and proposed support for reforms concerning the rule of law, the media and the fight against corruption. This is not enough to establish a change in foreign policy: Reuters points out that candidates have more detailed their domestic priorities than their international ambitions. The formation of the government and its first decisions will help to measure the concrete scope of this victory. [S23] [S19]