Israel: Herzog chooses Eisenkot to form a government, but the majority remains to be built

Israeli President Isaac Herzog announced Saturday, November 7, his choice of Gadi Eisenkot to try to form the next government, after the elections on October 27. The official delivery of the mandate is scheduled for Sunday, 8 November. Deutsche Welle, Sky News and Middle East Eye agree on this decision: it gives the initiative to Benjamin Netanyahu's rival, without leading to the immediate departure of the outgoing Prime Minister. [S3] [S5] [S12]

Recommendations, not yet a coalition

Former Chief of Staff and leader of the Yashar Centralist Party, Eisenkot leads an alliance with 48 of the 120 seats in the Knesset. Camp Netanyahu has 53 and Arab-led formations, together, 19. None of the two main blocks thus reach only the 61 seats corresponding to the absolute majority. [S3] [S12]

However, the presidential consultations gave Eisenkot the advantage: 67 MPs recommended it, compared with 46 for Netanyahu, while seven did not recommend anyone, according to the count provided by the Presidency and reported by Sky News. The two Arab formations, Rasam and the Unified List, supported its designation. Unified Judaism of the Torah, traditional ally of Netanyahu, did not recommend any candidate. This result is not yet a government agreement. [S5] [S12] [S15]

There is a divergence in the distribution of Arab seats: NDTV allocates seven elected to Rasam, compared with eight elected to Middle East Eye. However, they are consistent with the 19 seats of the two formations combined and the 67 recommendations obtained by Eisenkot. This difference does not allow for an undisputed breakdown between the two parties. [S7] [S12]

Arab support divides Camp Eisenkot

Eisenkot wants to form a "national emergency government". According to CNN, he envisages a minority executive around the four formations of his alliance: Yashar, Together, Yisrael Beiteinu and the Democrats. Arab parties could support him in Parliament without entering the government. CNN states that nomination requires a simple majority: a coalition with 61 members is therefore not the only possible formula, contrary to what the simplified Deutsche Welle presentation might suggest. [S3] [S15]

This option encounters internal resistance. Avigdor Lieberman, leader of Yisrael Beiteinu, refuses a government dependent on Arab parties. He believes that such an executive would be fragile and would then promote the return of Netanyahu. Instead, he proposes to seek an agreement with the ultra-Orthodox Shas and unified Judaism parties of the Torah. This scenario remains a proposal, not an alliance. [S15]

For the voters represented by the Arab formations, the negotiations engage the ability of their elected representatives to influence the next executive. The Consolidated List presents its recommendation as a means of preventing the return of the Netanyahu government. But recommending Eisenkot, supporting his nomination and participating in his cabinet remain separate decisions: the refusal of a formal alliance does not necessarily exclude external parliamentary support. [S12] [S15]

Universal service, an obligation at the heart of compromises

According to CNN, the conditions for government participation include recognition of Israel as a Jewish, democratic, liberal and egalitarian state, adherence to the values of its declaration of independence, universal service — military, national or civilian — and recognition of Hamas as a terrorist organization. CNN believes that this latter requirement would prevent Arab parties from entering the cabinet, without necessarily preventing their external support. [S15]

At the same time, universal service complicates a rapprochement with ultraorthodox formations. They called for legislation to provide for the military exemption of ultra-Orthodox men, while opposition officials campaigned against this general exemption. The dispute therefore concerns the allocation of an obligation among individuals, not just ministerial positions. [S15]

However, the information available does not detail the exemptions envisaged in a future arrangement, the sanctions or guarantees of freedom of conscience. The possibility of a civil service is included in the conditions announced, but no agreement described yet makes it possible to assess the individual constraints or the concrete modalities. This is a negotiating position, not a new obligation. [S15]

Netanyahu defends another formula of unity

Netanyahu calls for a government of unity between Zionist parties and presents an executive dependent on Arab formations as a threat to Israel. This is a political argument, not an established effect. Yashar responded by inviting Likud to break with his qualified extremist allies and join a government led by Eisenkot. Unit calls thus cover competing conditions. [S12] [S15]

Eisenkot will have 28 days to negotiate, with a possible extension of 14 days. In case of failure, another candidate could obtain the opportunity to form a government; Failure of the whole procedure would pave the way for new elections. The presidential choice therefore creates a possibility of alternation, without guaranteeing a majority capable of governing. [S3] [S5]