Inflation at 3.4% in October in France: INSEE confirms higher since January 2024, driven by energy

INSEE confirmed on Friday 13 November that consumer prices rose by 3.4% over a year in October in France. This final figure corresponds to the provisional estimate published at the end of October and marks the highest level since January 2024 [S1][S4][S5][S3][S6]. It prolongs a rapid acceleration: inflation was 3.1% in September, and only 0.9% a year earlier [S4][S7][S8].

Energy as the main engine

The increase is primarily due to energy. Its prices rose 24.1% year-on-year in October, after 21.3% in September, as a result of higher gas and petroleum prices; this is the fourth consecutive month of acceleration [S1][S2][S4][S5][S3][S6]. According to CNews, gas increases by 27.1% year-on-year, petroleum products by 38.5% and electricity by 2.7% [S2]. Media reports that, at the same time last year, before the outbreak of the Middle East war, energy prices were falling [S4][S5][S6]. The specialized website Actu.shop, which details the index items, notes an increase of 46.7% over one year for diesel fuel [S9].

However, the weight of this outbreak in the index remains limited by its weighting: energy accounts for about 7.6% of the consumption basket retained by INSEE in 2026, compared with more than half for services [S8]. It is therefore above all the speed of the energy increase that pulls the whole upwards.

Services up, food down slightly

Inflation also rose in services, to 2.6% in October after 2.4% [S2][S4][S6]. In its provisional estimate, INSEE attributed this acceleration to accommodation and transport prices [S8]. The final figures confirm this: accommodation grew by 7.2%, transportation by 7.4% and insurance by 5.1% [S2]. Other items are slowing down slightly, such as rents, water and household refuse (2.0 per cent after 2.1 per cent), communication services (4.1 per cent after 6.2 per cent) and health (0.7% after 0.8 per cent) [S2].

Conversely, the rise in food prices slowed slightly, to 1.2% after 1.4%, thanks to a slowdown in fresh products (8.0 % after 9.5%) [S4][S6]. Fruity vegetables such as tomatoes and zucchini remain significantly more expensive than a year ago (24.9%), but less expensive than in September (35.8%); same trend for salads and leafy vegetables (15.6% after 23.5%) [S4][S6]. Manufactured goods continue to decline slightly (-0.2% after -0.3%) [S4][S6].

Over a month and on a European scale

Over one month, prices rebounded by 0.4% in October, after a 0.3% decline in September [S4][S6][S7]. The harmonised index, which is used for comparisons between European countries, is 3.7% year-on-year, after 3.4% in September [S4][S5][S6]. It was slightly revised: INSEE had initially estimated it at 3.8% [S7][S8]. The main difference between the two indicators concerns health: the harmonised index follows the net prices of social security repayments, the national index gross prices [S8].

What it changes for households

For households, an inflation rate of 3.4 per cent means that an unchanged income can buy less than a year ago, with a greater effect for those who rely on the car or are heated by gas, since it is precisely these items that are blazing. The final figure is also practical: unlike the provisional estimate, it is used for the adjustments provided for in the contracts, e.g. certain rents or indexed pensions [S8][S9].

The figure falls in a tense social climate: according to CNews, some of the French have been demonstrating since mid-October against expensive life, and between 30,000 and 60,000 people are expected in Paris Saturday 14 November [S2].

The sources consulted do not present any analysis of public policies in response to this increase or forecasts for the coming months. The next appointment is the provisional November estimate, expected on 27 November [S8].